Quarterly growth projections for India’s non-oil and total merchandise exports are published by Exim Bank during the initial two weeks of May, August, November, and February, for the corresponding quarters.
According to the Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank), the value of India’s merchandise exports is projected to reach US$ 116.7 billion in the first quarter (April-June) of fiscal year 2025. Non-oil exports are anticipated to amount to US$ 93.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.7%. It is anticipated that these favorable growth rates will persist, building upon the positive growth observed in the final two quarters of the preceding fiscal year. India’s robust GDP growth fundamentals and outlook, sustained momentum in the manufacturing and services sectors, anticipated global easing of monetary tightening that stimulates global demand, and, to some extent, the base effect may all contribute to the country’s export growth. However, the outlook is susceptible to various risks, including geopolitical disruptions, ambiguous prospects for developed economies, the Middle East crisis exacerbating the Red Sea crisis, and increasing geoeconomic fragmentation. It is anticipated that the export sector will sustain its positive momentum in the future quarters.
Exim Bank publishes quarterly growth projections for its non-oil and total merchandise exports of India. These projections are derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model and are made available during the initial two weeks of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters. In the first two weeks of August 2024, the subsequent growth forecast for India’s exports for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 (i.e., July-September 2024) will be disclosed.
A standing technical committee of domain experts, which includes Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Head of the Department of Economics at Jadavpur University in Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor of BASE University in Bengaluru; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Advisor, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development, examined the modifications to the model and the forecast results.
Exim Bank, in the pursuit of ongoing research, has developed an internal model for generating an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India. This ELI is designed to monitor and predict the quarterly fluctuations in India’s exports. The Export Outlook Lengthening Index (ELI) serves as a leading indicator for predicting quarterly growth in the nation’s non-oil and total merchandise exports, taking into account a variety of domestic and international factors that may have an effect on exports.
